On August 6, 1945 (we’ll be celebrating this event anniversary in a few days) the Enola Gay US bomber dropped the first atom bomb on Hiroshima, Japan.

The images of the deadly effects of this new kind of bomb have been restricted in circulation by the US government, while they were taken and used in order to fully evaluate the actual impact of these new bombs. The United States Strategic Bombing Survey (SBS) Damage Division was tasked to photograph and analyze the effects of the bombing. These photographs (or some of them) have been acquired by the International Center of Photography.

They are currently in exhibition there until August 28, 2011.

• EF 300mm f/2.8L IS II USM at $6,599, late August 2011
• EF 400mm f/2.8L IS II USM at $10,499, late August 2011
• EF 8-15mm f/4L Fisheye USM at $1,399, late July 2011
• EF 500mm f/4L IS II USM at $9,499, later in 2011
• EF 600mm f/4L IS II USM at $11,999, later in 2011

No information about the 200-400mm with 1.4x extender.

In parallel, Nikon is murmuring that they do not intend to launch any new pro tele-lens in 2011.

All this is obviously linked to the issues coming from the Japan earthquake (even if Canon is pushing forward with something that is really late already).

Nikon stated that its recent financial year has been deeply marked by the immediate consequences of the earthquake, but out of the already know closure of the Sendai plant (with a probable re-opening in a still-unclear future) we did not get a lot of precise and direct data. The big sales of the D3100 and of the D700 have been noticed but we know that the D700 was built in Sendai (some limited shortages can be expected all through 2011). For most of the other SLR cameras, Nikon must rebuild the stocks but there is not any more trauma in sight.

All the photo brands have been similarly hit, and this gives some astonishing delays and on deliveries, without any easy forecast. There was a lot of talk about the Nikon Coolpix S4100 and S6100. The Fuji Finepix X100 also goes through bouts of shortage (where eBay prices flare up) and becomes available again (sometimes for only a few hours or a few days, depending on the shop or the exact status of immediate stocks). On the opposite side, Canon recently indicated that they expected to see manufacturing back to normal as soon as end of June (correcting the supply chain issues).

Obviously, the manufacturers are not in any hurry to confirm this kind of trouble. Simultaneously because the rumor could hinder long-term sales, and because the actual situation is much more complex than a simple shortage (very low stock levels make very short non-availability periods and very different geographical situations). It is now pretty sure that (and this is a bad news for the eBay speculative sellers) there will be no dramatic shortage (except maybe for a few select pro models which have been “surprised” with nearly no stock when they were reaching end-of-life).

In parallel, the commercial launches of nearly all the photo products planned for this Summer (and even Fall 2011) are either simply delayed or kept in place but with associated “tweaked” availability dates. As for other industries, resellers have been informed that “in front of the success of product X”, shipment delays must be expected at launch time. the first victims will be the shows and fairs from August to October 2011. Not many news, announcements made without any marketing punch. The real boom back to the market will happen after Christmas, for 2012.

So, no catastrophe and certainly no significant price hikes out of local issues and the manipulative pressure of some speculators. However, the possibility to negotiate prices down (even on cameras already a little old) are reduced up to October 2011. Be patient.

Nevertheless, while we look at the industrial impact and its influence on our leisure and photo activities, I urge you to remember about the possibility we all have to help the Japanese Red Cross Society.

According to the Spanish webzine QUESABESDE.COM, Nikon has clarified (at least internally) what to do with the upcoming replacement of the Nikon D700 (FX large sensor with a high sensitivity).

Because of the impact of the Japanese earthquake on the Sendai plant normally used to work on the pro SLR cameras of Nikon, the future Nikon D800 was in a rather difficult position. According to QSD, the announcement has been moved from the beginning of Summer (July? about the same time as the 3rd birthday of the D700) to October with a D800 camera availability still pushed around the end of 2011 (Marketing launch is easy, making the camera is a bit more difficult).

Obviously, the exact dates are not set yet because of the fluctuating nature of the news about the earthquake recovery. But this seems in line with what I hear about the industrial capacity of Nikon right now and in the coming months.

QSD also indicates that the Nikon D4 (successor to the Nikon D3s) will only be launched in 2012. But this is still very imprecise and needs to be confirmed.

photo © 2011 jennifer chong | more info (via: Wylio)

This is visibly a consequence that could be foretold from the destruction generated by the earthquake and the ensuing tsunami. To give some perspective on this status in another industrial domain, Toyota announced that they were just restarting most of their plants in Japan but… that full production would not be reached before November or December. The issues with sub-contractors and suppliers will keep them waiting. The photography industry sees the same kind of problems.

So, a few new products will have to suffer a little from this:

• The launch of the new Sony NEX C3 (recently visible) could wait until June.
• The NEX-7 is still on schedule for July.
• The Sony Alpha 35 (next Alpha SLR camera, at entry level) will certainly have to wait until July.
• Le Sony Alpha 77 (future high-end SLR camera in the Alpha range of APS-C sensors) despite having been in the waiting list for a very long time will not be delayed (July anyway!) but will not be available before September; And don’t expect more than a few parts: Full production is targeting October (or even early November).
• No lens should be announced before August, maybe expect a 16-50mm to be presented with the A77 but probably not more available than th camera body.

While I’m at it, I have been confirmed that the launch of the Sony Portable PlayStation (game console) is still on the horizon but it could be not available before the Christmas holidays. Jack Tretton, president of Sony Computer Entertainment of America, has publicly admitted that in order to alleviate such issues they are ready to prioritize world markets. Some region(s) may see the product while others will be waiting (Apple is known for using such tactics on the iPhone). I would bet a large sum of money that Sony is going to play the same card with photo cameras (and I would also be ready to say that some eBay users are already prepared to play with exchange rates to buy cameras on continents where they do not live).

photo credit: eirikso

Broadly summarized, it would be something like:

• On top of the small direct devastation, the mere stoppage of the production is a significant problem for plants.
• Manufacturing sites like Hitachi Display (Chiba prefecture), NEC’s Gen 2 (Akita prefecture), Toshiba Fukaya & Ishikawa, or Epson Gen 2 are mostly producing small-sized panels, with little or no impact on the bulk of the Flat Panel Displays market (flat panel TV screens). [But this is a direct hit for other applications like photo gear, of course]
• the article covers the technologies in order to assess the situation and we can see (or discover in many cases) the diversity of the products that enter in a lowly LCD: glass tanks (to manufacture raw glass panels aka mother glass panels), electronic components, color filters, Anisotropic Conductive Film (or ACF) to glue electronic components onto the glass surface.
• Manufacturing tools and development tools are also hit, but since you don’t purchase them each and every day the immediate risk is quite low.
• The actual stock levels at earthquake time for many components or elements is decisive for long-term consequences.

From what I heard personally and more directly, I can confirm this analysis. Despite its very geenral for, it is of the utmost precision (and this was expected from a well-informed technology blog like DisplaySearch Blog).

But they went even further into details with another article (Emerging Disruptions to the FPD Supply Chain). Here, you will find details about several other key technologies which were not initially included in the first article:

• NF3 (Nitrogen Trifluoride), a gas used for cleaning deposition chambers. The stocks were very low already and the earthquake put this all in serious shortage.
• ITO (Indium Tin Oxide), the chemical component used to draw the invisible conductive tracks on the surface of the LCD is usually provided as pellets or targets whose production is coming essentially from Japan and one of its main manufacturers is currently out of operation.
• Color pigments are a specialty for several Japanese companies and some colors are in near total shortage at a global level, even if some replacements may be quickly developed.

Listing Hirose, manufacturer of micro-connectors, will be particularly noticed by photographers understanding that Canon and Nikon are among their most prominent customers.

• The micro-connectors used on the LCD modules or around them (but also between many of the photo camera components) have also been dramatically hit.
• Some production equipments (steppers) from Nikon for production of semi-conductors are terribly hit too. And some industrial launches for the future (in some months) may be very seriously in trouble, including some new microprocessors or recent technology display panels (like AMOLED for example).

photo credit: Andrew Mason

From what one heres, all this industry is currently trying to assess the exact situation and the amount of degradations (this mere remark nearly a month after the tsunami gives an idea of the range of difficulties). I was informed of engineers moving around their plant with the only help of a hand flash light or of a headlight, while most of the company personnel was not even able to reach the factory itself.

I’ll let you imagine the task at hand. I let you imagine the energy that they are all using to re-start or boot-strap this very sensitive and normally very fine-tuned engine that is at the core of the industry.

Yesterday announcement by Sony (via TTKN) was also informing us the several plants of the Sony Chemical & Information Device Corporation division (See previous lines about ACF) had not been able to fully restart operations on the 28th of March.

No information about how they computed these figures, but the readers of YLovePhoto know what it is all about the Japan earthquake and its consequences.

Keep reading about the associated tags of tsunami, earthquake, Japan.

Source: Bloomberg.

Canon Press Release 04-April-2011

Recovery Status Report for Canon Inc. and Canon Group Following Great East Japan Earthquake

TOKYO, April 4, 2011—The Great East Japan Earthquake, which struck off the northeast coast of Japan’s main island of Honshu on March 11, caused massive damage and loss of life in the area.
We at Canon extend our heartfelt condolences to all those affected by this disaster, along with their families and loved ones.
We pray for the safety of everyone in affected areas and hope that the region will soon be able to begin the rebuilding and healing process.

As for the Canon Group, immediately following the earthquake, Canon Inc. established the Earthquake Disaster Recovery Task Force (Task Force Chief: Chairman & CEO Fujio Mitarai), launching recovery activities spanning development, production and sales operations through a collective effort across the Canon Group.

Although the Canon Group sustained damage to buildings and production equipment, a concerted Company-wide effort has already made possible the resumption of production activities at multiple Canon Inc. operation sites and Canon Group companies. In addition, through ongoing recovery measures being carried out in conjunction with related divisions, all Canon Inc. operation sites and Canon Group companies are expected to achieve a full recovery as of the end of April.

With regard to the multiple operation sites and Canon Group companies in Japan that sustained no direct damage due to the earthquake and its aftermath, the Company is left with no alternative but to continue adjusting some production activities due to rolling blackouts and procurement conditions for raw materials, parts and other supplies.

The status of major Canon Group operating sites as of Monday, April 4, is outlined below.

Operating Status of Operation Sites and Canon Group Companies

Canon Group Operation Sites

• Optics R&D Center, Utsunomiya Office (Utsunomiya, Tochigi Prefecture)
  Operations resumed on March 22 (Tue.)
  Currently fully operational

• Utsunomiya Plant, Utsunomiya Office (Utsunomiya, Tochigi Prefecture)
  Production to sequentially resume from mid April

• Utsunomiya Optical Products Plant, Utsunomiya Office (Utsunomiya, Tochigi Prefecture)
  Operations to resume in mid April, with production to sequentially resume from same time

• Toride Plant (Toride, Ibaraki Prefecture)
  Operations resumed on March 18 (Fri.)
  Currently carrying out intermittent production

• Ami Plant (Inashiki-gun, Ibaraki Prefecture)
  Operations resumed on March 17 (Thur.)
  Currently fully operational

Canon Group Companies

• Canon Precision Inc. (Hirosaki, Aomori Prefecture)
  Operations resumed on March 23 (Wed.)
  Currently carrying out intermittent production

• Canon Chemicals Inc.: Headquarters & Tsukuba Plant (Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture) / Iwama Plant (Kasama, Ibaraki Prefecture)
  Operations resumed at headquarters and Tsukuba Plant on March 22 (Tue.)
  Currently fully operational

  Operations resumed at Iwama Plant on March 28 (Mon.)
  Currently almost fully operational

• Fukushima Canon Inc. (Fukushima, Fukushima Prefecture)
  Operations resumed on March 22 (Tue.)
  Currently fully operational

• Canon Mold Co., Ltd. (Kasama, Ibaraki Prefecture)
  Operations resumed on March 22 (Tue.)
  Currently almost fully operational

• Oita Canon Inc. (Kunisaki, Oita Prefecture)
  Operations resumed on April 1 (Fri.)
  Currently carrying out intermittent production

• Nagasaki Canon Inc. (Hasami-cho, Higashisonogi-gun, Nagasaki Prefecture)
  Operations resumed on March 30 (Wed.)
  Currently carrying out intermittent production

• Canon Optron, Inc. (Yuki, Ibaraki Prefecture)
  Production to sequentially resume from early April

Other Factors

Disclaimer:
The information contained in this news release is current as of the release date.
Please be aware that information regarding circumstances from April 5 onward is subject to change.

It is unclear what the precise impacts are going to be. According to very short comments from the Sigma France team, it seems that the logistics and supply issues are going to be the most significant to handle.

No comment at all about the Sigma SD1 but the camera does not seem to be more in trouble than since its official launch.

Apparently, the Nikon D400 (planned for a much later date in 2011) is not impacted.

All in all, it may mean that everything is pushed to the last quarter of 2011. the exact launch order may not be currently determined inside Nikon marketing department.

Consequently, Samyang has been forced to announce some delays and difficulties to supply their products in the coming months. The list of impacted lenses has not been detailed but it contains many items including the recent

• 7.5mm f/3.5 UMC Fisheye MFT
• 35mm f/1.4 AS UMC

Beware: Other non-listed references are involved too.

No word about the economic/financial consequences to the Samyang Optics Co. Ltd company.

We quickly learned that some plants had been subjected to some destructions and deteriorations directly linked to the earthquake and we start receiving some news on the future consequences, but it is already possible to describe more precisely the kind of impact on the photo industry in the North of Japan and the consequences on the worldwide photo market in the coming months.

First, we can detail the type of immediate deteriorations applied to the industrial equipment. And it is true that an earthquake is never completely transparent, even for a plant specifically well prepared as most Japanese plants. Far from the usual broken glass and fallen objects, there are some internal damages (crumbling walls, falling roofs, machines either broken or merely disturbed, etc.) and some external damages (loss of electrical power, of water and air pressure, of gas supply, etc.) These damages often require very heavy repairs by specialists who are not always immediately available for many reasons including the large number of such operations or the damaged roads and tracks limiting their movements. This is a very first stage that companies must go through in order to evaluate first degree damages and to start urgent repairs. It seems that all companies -even very near to the epicenter like in Sendai- have through this already. Nikon, for example, has indicated very few serious damages to its Sendai plant. Canon and some other companies did the same kind of assessment. It appears that for Fujifilm or Pentax, the impacts were also quite limited (which may still mean fallen walls or events that are totally out of the ordinary in other circumstances – references are definitely different in this context).

But there is still a very specific difficulty to a seismic event like the one of March 2011: The country lost a large part of its capacity to produce electrical power and is today subjected to major power cuts which are rotated though the country. This is limiting the reaction possibilities in many locations.

But this is introducing some very clear preoccupations in the some industry sectors and for some industrial tools. In some plants, the operation must be nearly continuous. Let’s think about theses processes that cannot stop because they need very long times to start or restart: Either because of very long heating times -for example a steel blast furnace, or a silicon mono-crystal ingot production line- which can be measured in hours or days and cannot be stopped every day, even for a short period of one or two hours, or because of setup operations that are either long or difficult -for example, maintaining the extreme tidiness of a clean room requires to have a permanent water and power supply; Any 1-hour interruption may mean days to reach the required cleanliness level.

This is a considerably more impacting for some products that are specifically sensitive for the photo industry like:

• electronic components (when the production is located in Japan, it is hit twice, by the lack of water and electricity, and by utterly complex setup operations)
• glass industry (which uses big ovens whose heating-up times are often measured in days)
• LCD manufacturing (very sensitive to the cleanliness of the industrial environment)

It is now apparent that these elements are intricately nested together. For example, some industrial LCD display suppliers have informed customers of their inability to manufacture displays for lack of one or two electronic components (drivers assembled directly on the LCD glass). Some others have indicated that the lack of a mundane chemical component of filters stuck at the surface of LCD modules would render them unable to manufacture many displays even though the assembly plant itself was unscathed (this particular case seems to be hitting a very large number of LCD manufacturers following the stop of one very specific Japanese plant which is in a world quasi-monopoly). More widely, we heard plant stop announcements at Toshiba (two plants), Texas Instruments (analog and power electronic components), Fujitsu (no less than 5 plants), Nikon (even for electron photo-lithography equipments which could stop and slow down the deployment of the next generation of products at Intel [5]).

On the other hand, the manufacturing of electronic integrated chips should not be hampered by any difficulty in producing mono-crystal ingot of silicon, the foundation of all this industry but whose production has not been directly hit.

Canon was not very clear, but it seems that their glass manufacturing has been hit somewhat. Today’s press release announcing delays to the availability of 300mm f/2.8 L EF, 400mm f/2.8 L EF tele-lenses and 8-15mm f/4 L zoom lens[1] is probably not a random fluke in this context even if the disclosed delay seems small (or, at least, much smaller than the already long wait for these major products).

The situation is much more dramatic for electronic components. Many Japanese industrial companies have told us about significant line stops. Some of them already predict full shipment delays that could be counted in months. Microprocessors, various drivers, voltage regulators, ASICs are already hit. And the most impressive news have not reached the general public and are kept behind closed doors of industrial partnerships. The task forces created between customers and suppliers are facing absolutely daunting obstacles. For example, Peugeot announced yesterday[2] the full stop of the production lines of the 308 (Sochaux, Poissy) for lack of critical electronic chips that are already no longer available. In this case, we’re looking at a microprocessor from Hitachi (the company has five plants more or less severely hit in Japan). Nearly at the same time, General Motors published similar press releases for its American plants[3] in Shreveport, Louisiana or in Buffalo, New York. These giant companies did not publicly disclose (yet) the exact time forecast for these line stops, though.Canon, Nikon, Sony, Panasonic, Fuji, Pentax and the others still have to speak and they will certainly suffer such dire situations at least for some of their products.

And I must point at the fact that these are only indirect consequences less than two weeks after the earthquake. But we know that Panasonic, Fuji or Nikon have plants which suffered seriously from the earthquake (by chance, the Nikon Sendai plant is seated on the heights behind the town and did not see the tsunami itself)). Nikon has already reported being in negotiations with its Notion VTEC partner to move production tools from Sendai to Malaysia.

On this occasion, we learned that some subcontractors were also affected. And we can mention Notion VTEC again, which is a critical supplier of metal focusing barrels (for lenses) and of many other parts of photo cameras and lenses for Canon and Nikon. I can also confirm that some injected parts like the magnesium allow bodies of some photo cameras are in the spotlight (even if not publicly announced).

All this is explaining the Canon press release about the delay that will hit the availability of the Canon EOS 1100D (or Kiss X50) [4]. However, these are only very small delays. But it is still quite probable that the reality will be a little less than this optimistic presentation. Fujifilm also announced potentially significant damages to its Taiwa-Cho plant (less than 20 km from Sendai) with major repercussions on the availability of the Fuji Finepix X100.

So, is the situation desperate? This is not sure yet. For sure, there will be some shortages on some products but it is still very difficult to predict which ones before we can get much more precise information (let’s mention the effort done by Canon to disclose data more precise than the usual).

So, the price increase that can already be observed in some Europe or USA shops are currently not justified by anything else than the speculation and greediness of some who decided to profit from trouble and worries. But it won’t be long before some real trouble comes. It is already quite understandable (if surprising) that the eBay auctions for the Fuji Finepix X100 are flying at stratospheric heights. Some products will certainly be in actual shortage sooner or later. We just don’t know which ones. Yet.

My recommendation? Without waiting to be sure, don’t postpone purchases that were serious about. The next 6 months will be energetically shaking and you don’t want to buy more stuff than necessary in these times to come. And this is without even planning for the quality issues that could raise in this upcoming period of time: Restarting industrial manufacturing tools having been shaken or booting up new production equipment both present serious and specific challenges that are always a little difficult to manage.

photo credit: camerawiki

• Fujifilm confirmed that the Japan earthquake and tsunami will have an impact on the actual availability of the new X-100 camera. Damages to its Taiwa-Cho factory, 20 km from Sendai, will lead to a delay in introduction of the Fuji FinePix X100. No date is given, but we are probably speaking of weeks rather than days.
• Canon and Nikon have not recently provided information about re-opening some of the closed facilities, despite relatively light damages (see Google satellite photos of Nikon Sendai plant at NikonRumors). In short, delays will be large and it is quite difficult (even internally) to evaluate the impact on existing or future products. Shortages will be limited only by the existence of stocks in various parts of the world or in Japan undamaged warehouses when they become easily accessible again.
• Sony confirmed that no plant producing cameras or lenses was damaged. Impact should be minimal.
• Many memory chip and microprocessor manufacturers are located in northern Japan. Most analysts expect to observe shortages starting in the coming days. Prices on spot markets like DRAMeXchange are climbing fast.
• Toshiba, one of the largest suppliers of Flash memory, told the Financial Times that they halted operations where they were hit by the earthquake. Others sites stopped producing following a request by Tokyo Electric Power Company to reduce electricity consumption.
• Some web sites, like AkihabaraNews, are expected to stop or slow down while their owners concentrate on other critical aspect of their lives or while they flee to other places.

Many electronic products (including photo equipment) will probably see their prices climb steadily in the coming months. Some cameras and lenses could soon become nearly impossible to purchase. If you intended to buy electronic and photo stuff, now is the time, before the probable shortages.

• Japan Red Cross Society: http://www.jrc.or.jp/index.html
• American Red Cross:  Donations can be made by accessing www.redcross.org or by texting REDCROSS to 90999
• International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies: http://www.ifrc.org/
• Salvation Army USA: http://www.salvationarmyusa.org/
• Doctors Without Borders: http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/

Reasons are not precisely described but the local priorities are certainly elsewhere, with the gigantic issues of rescue, transportation and logistics that are filling the minds and using the energy of everybody in this part of the world.

Source: Canon.

Update:

Very similar announcement have also been made by Nikon which is still evaluating the possibility to restart its plants and the long-term rationing of electricity from this week.

Source : Nikon.

However, a few elements can also be collected related the photo industry.

• Nikon Sendai plant (manufacturing D700, D3, D3s cameras; supposedly the future home of the D800 and D4) is very near the epicenter. While Nikon reported that there were no employee injured and that the plant suffered no major trouble, the city of Sendai has been badly hit by the following tsunami and major disruptions have been reported. It means that even if the plant itself is mostly undamaged, we can expect a number of issues related to possible lack of energy, water, transportation, etc.
• Canon stated that 12 people of the Utsunomiya plant are reported with minor injuries. Production has stopped and damaged is behind evaluated while there is no obvious major impact to the plant building and major equipment.
• Panasonic reports a few (probably two) minor injuries at its Lumix plant of Fukushima (in the same Fukushima Prefecture as the Daiishi nuclear power plant which has currently some issues with maintaining its full integrity after stopping production) and at its Sendai plant. Building damage has been observed (ceiling, walls) but no collapse and no fire.
• Sony: not much reported except the evacuation of 6 unnamed Sony plants in the North-Eastern Japan. This are probably manufacturing sites for BluRay discs, batteries, magnetic tapes and magnetic heads. There would be no victim but, after 24 hours, these plants did not restart any production.
• According to Olympus UK, there was no major impact to the group’s plants and production should not be disrupted.
• Pentax: no report.

As we all know, the companies are reporting this kind of information (and we are trying to relay them) with two issues in mind: The safety of people involved and the possible industrial consequences.

In the mean time, you can support the earthquake relief funds by contacting directly the serious actors like Red Cross. Do not fall for the hoaxes and bad people trying to get at your money in these dire times.

Usually, a DSLR has 1 lens attached. Some 3D cameras have two.

This piece of technological achievement has four rows of 39 or 40 lenses allowing it to take 3D images of complex objects like a flame using Computed Tomography (CT) technology.

As could be expected the lenses are quite small (2 cm in diameter, less than an inch) and cheap, and mounted on an aluminum structure. It reminds me of the 120 photo camera structure created for the slow motion “bullet time” sequences: Many photo cameras triggered in sequence. Same idea but for a smaller object and a much more affordable price.