We are not alone. Plenty of people on the web have the same objective and they brought us exactly that: A wealth of comparisons, parallel tests and face-to-face reviews for the newest contenders for the title of “Most attractive enthusiast-targeting photo camera with a Full Frame sensor”.

• Low Light Comparison of the Canon 5D Mark II, 5D Mark III, and Nikon D800 from Joe Marine (via PetaPixel): It’s an impressive show of the Canon video performance (even calling the old 5D MkII in)
• DxOLabs does a number of reviews and comparisons aiming at the sensor quality (D800 & 5D MkIII): does not leave any doubt about the photo ability of the Nikon sensor (or should I say Sony sensor?).



• Nikon D800 vs. D3s and D7000 comparison by Cary Jordan: is obviously impressed by the D800 performance (as an excellent FX camera and as a very good DX/APS-C camera, too.)
• Canon EOS 5D Mk III Vs Nikon D800 at PhotoAnswers: is rather balanced but shows very nice D800 pictures.

So, can we try and build a summary of what is known and what the Nikon-lovers must know and understand if they are waiting for their next dream photo camera?

The first thing to notice is clearly the way Digital SLR photo cameras ran one after the other in the Nikon range of cameras. I dare say that I borrowed a camera Timeline built by Wikipedia (See below). This historical approach based on the record of launch dates allows to better perceive how Nikon usually operates:

• Entry-level photo cameras replaced at high frequency
• A much quieter Pro-level range

It is immediately clear that the pro photo cameras are about to be replaced with new models, if only because of the age of the current cameras:

• 3 years for the D3x
• Nearly two years for the D3s
• 3 years for the D700
• 2 years for the D300s

From this poiint, rumors are flaring up quite naturally (just look at how many wrong rumors we collected about the Nikon D400).

But the rhythm seems to speed up with the various announcements seen recently on Facebook, NikonRumors, PCHome (China), Tech.Hexun.com (China too), and a few others.

We long considered as certain that Summer 2011 would see the simultaneous launch of two pro cameras at Nikon, but the Japanese tsunami totally changed the landscape for a company whose main pro camera manufacturing plant was in Sendai (nearly exactly at the center of devastation in March). Nikon quickly reacted and decided to move its manufacturing resources to Malaysia. The latest news tell that machines are now humming with the people you relocated (with the help of special supporting bonuses) and the “Made in Malaysia” production is nearly here (with the same quality as in Japan).

On the other hand, it seems that it transformed the Marketing calendar that Nikon had built in January 2011. All the rumors were concentrating on a Summer with a Nikon D4 and a Nikon D400 (successors to the D3 and D300s). But in the recent weeks, everybody seems to be sharing an expectation of Nikon D4 and Nikon D800 (successors to the D3 and D700). I could not seriously confirm this change but it seems that it could have been dictated by the need to optimize resources leading to something like:

1. Two Full Frame cameras in September 2011 (according to NR, it could even be August)
2. A D400 in January 2012

the only problem of this scenario: The Nikon D800 is supposed to use the Sony digital sensor being readied to power the Sony A99 which should not appear before the end of 2011 (or even the first quarter of 2012).

So, it is still possible that the rumors heard here and there are going to be corrected by facts and that in September 2011 we’ll see a Nikon D4 (with a specific sensor designed exclusively by Nikon with a “pro” label) and a Nikon D400 (with an APS-C sensor shared with the Sony A77 -or slightly modified- and an “expert” label).

Nikon D400

• 24 MP APS-C CMOS sensor from Sony
• ISO 100-51,200 (ext. ISO 102,400)
• New AF
• Continuous shooting: 9 fps
• Full HD video
• In-camera GPS?
• Two SD cards

Nikon D800 or D700s

• 18 MP FF/FX CMOS sensor from Nikon
• ISO 100-102,400 (ext. ???)
• Same AF as D700 or D3
• Continuous shooting: 9 fps
• Full HD video
• CF + SD cards

Nikon D4

• 18 MP FF/FX CMOS sensor from Nikon
• ISO 100-102,400 (ext. ???)
• New AF?
• Continuous shooting: 10-15 fps
• Full HD video
• CF + SD cards

According to the Spanish webzine QUESABESDE.COM, Nikon has clarified (at least internally) what to do with the upcoming replacement of the Nikon D700 (FX large sensor with a high sensitivity).

Because of the impact of the Japanese earthquake on the Sendai plant normally used to work on the pro SLR cameras of Nikon, the future Nikon D800 was in a rather difficult position. According to QSD, the announcement has been moved from the beginning of Summer (July? about the same time as the 3rd birthday of the D700) to October with a D800 camera availability still pushed around the end of 2011 (Marketing launch is easy, making the camera is a bit more difficult).

Obviously, the exact dates are not set yet because of the fluctuating nature of the news about the earthquake recovery. But this seems in line with what I hear about the industrial capacity of Nikon right now and in the coming months.

QSD also indicates that the Nikon D4 (successor to the Nikon D3s) will only be launched in 2012. But this is still very imprecise and needs to be confirmed.

Amateur

Since animals are always hard to approach (in an African safari as well as in a European forest), you must have a lens with the adequate focal length: As long as possible. 300mm is the strict minimum (400mm would be better). But if you want to stay in a tolerable price range (isn’t the amateur defined by his/her high sensitivity to cost issues), it would be better to purchase a zoom lens rather than a prime lens (with fixed focal length). It’s true that a zoom is also easier to handle and use when the distance is imposed by the approach conditions and limits).

Taking these into account, Nikon offers two actual possibilities, despite being very different ones. The first is a 70-300mm f/4,5-5,6 ED IF AF-S VR zoom. Its focal range is quite extended, it’s stabilized, it has super-sonic motor assisted AF, but -over everything else- its picture quality is an excellent surprise (considering its price: You can get it under 500€ on eBay – second-hand).

However, there is a second possibility to reach longer focal lengths: The 80-400mm f/4,5-5,6 D ED AF VR has an optimal focal range, a perfect weight (and handling) and vibration reduction (image stabilization). But the image quality is not totally there. This lens suffers from a relatively old design which will force you to strong post-treatment or to systematically work at f/8 with the longest focal (The most important and most often used one, of course).

Personally, I would prefer the 70-300mm (for its sharpness). But the choice is still difficult. One future event could make it easier and re-shuffle cards: All leaked informations indicate that Nikon is currently working on a new version of the 80-400mm (two recent patent applications are proof of it). We can easily imagine the arrival of an excellent 80-400mm at the end of 2011. If the price stays at a reasonable level (but certainly not under 1000€ anyway), the balance will be tipped toward this newer lens.

Whatever the tele-lens used, the amateur will nearly automatically attach it to a Nikon D7000. This successor to the glorious D90 is so well balanced and brings such an image quality that it’s difficult to recommend anything else right now (end of 2010, beginning of 2011).

In order to also allow landscape photography, I recommend to also bag an 18-70mm f/3,5-4,5 G ED IF AF-S DX. You’ll notice that it shares the same filter diameter (67mm) with the 70-300mm (a cent is a cent, right?). But, more importantly, this will be a well-balanced set for image quality.

Enthusiast

The photographer claiming to be an expert or willing to chase a more ambitious goal will not be contented with the above zoom lenses recommended to the amateur. Here again, I will have to ideas to share according to the depth of your pockets. If you want to go low in costs, look at a 300mm (possibly a second-hand one) like the 300mm f/4 IF ED which despite the lack of stabilization (no VR) has a great image quality to show.

Unfortunately, Nikon has nothing very convincing in terms of both quality and price around 400mm. It will be around and over 5000€ (second-hand!) that we will find the next two lenses despite their very different feature sets.

• If you favor a wide aperture (and its associated nice and soft backgrounds), you will look at the beautiful (but heavy) 400mm f/2,8 D IF-ED II AF-S (or the 400mm f/2,8 G ED AF-S VR which is slightly less expensive and stabilized). It has many fans for a good reason.
• Personally, I fall for the surprising 200-400mm f/4 G IF-ED A-S VR. Its sharpness stays quite homogeneous (and very high) over the focal range and over the aperture range. It’s only drawback: You’re not the only one to know it and the price does not drop much on the second-hand market.

One specificity of the Nikon lens offering is to include excellent focal multipliers. Like nearly all its competitors, the doubler (x2.0) sacrificed too much of image sharpness but the x1.4 and also x1.7 multipliers are impressively good tools.

If you limit yourself to a maximum f/4 aperture and if you use a focal multiplier, it is important to have an SLR body able to produce nice pictures up to 1600 ISO. The Nikon D7000 is still the best candidate here. It’s only drawback is the small size of its image buffer which will limit the number of pictures stored in continuous shooting mode (you will have to keep a light finger on the shutter button)

Add to that solution a low focal length complement. The exceptional 70-200mm f/2,8 G AF-S ED VR II is strongly recommended for this; And complement it with a 17-55mm f/2,8 G IF-ED AF-S DX, very beautiful lens for landscape photography on the excellent DX sensor (in “APS-C” size) of the Nikon D7000.

Pro

But Nikon really shines when you want the best possible quality. If your budget has no limit (or if your dad is Ben Bernanke), Nikon has it all. The fame of the yellow brand is made exactly out of this, and it shows. But, be ready to invest sums that are really not available to mere mortals.

The professional range of tele-lenses of Nikon no longer needs to be presented; You only have to choose from it. I have difficulties recommending the 600mm f/4 D EF-ID II AF-S because of its 4.8 kg / 10.7 lb. weight. Laurent Baheux is the only one I know who uses it without a tripod (often on some kind of support anyway). But he is a wildlife photographer trained as a sports pro photographer. It could be associated to a 400mm f/2,8 D ED-IF II AF-S.

But I would rather be tempted by the more reasonable weight association (Still, make an appointment with your physiotherapist) of a 300mm f/2,8 ED AF-S VR II and a 500mm f/4 D ED-IF II AF-S (The latter also is no less than 3.4 kg / 7.5 lb.) which will be complemented with a x1.4 focal multiplier for a very extended coverage.

Since we’re no longer afraid of anything, the SLR body will naturally be a Nikon D3s for its enormous sensitivity (ISO 6400 is OK for beautiful pictures and it’s not frightened of ISO 102,400).

Do you still have some space left in your bad? Add a 70-200mm f/2,8 G AF-S ED VR II zoom and a 14-24mm f/2,8 G ED AF-S zoom for settings less strongly under the wildlife influence.

Conclusion

As you easily noticed, the Nikon range is more extensive for (or more well targeted to) the pro photographers than the amateur or even the enthusiast. We could be tempted to chose another brand, but, with Nikon, we do long-time investments (which is a major permanent recommendation when speaking about purchasing lenses). Moreover, the NIKON offering of SLR bodies is currently the most impressive and the most powerful on the market (It will change for sure).

The wildlife photographer will be easily contented at Nikon.

70-300mm VR Lens & 18-55mm Bundled with the D-5000 ($250 Instant Rebate)

18-200mm VR Bundled with the D-90 ($300 Instant Rebate)

24-70 f/2.8G ED mm & 70-200mm f/2.8G ED VR II Bundled with D-300S or D-700 ($700 Instant Rebate)

This offer ends 11/20/2010: Hurry up!

And all the other rebates at B&H.

First and foremost, let’s notice that after a deluge of news in 2008 and 2009, the yellow brand seemed a little slow (and farming money from its advance, I should say). It is probably a coincidence and the simultaneous occurrence of several jumps in the various product families, but it should also be considered as a warning of things to come in the digital SLR product lines.

The cameras that are most probably going to be replaced or renewed are (according to the data I could get):

• The Nikon D90 has grown past its normal life since the very noisy launch of 2008 and its 720p video capture needs to be upgraded to keep annoying the competition. So, probably, here comes the Nikon D7000 for early September: 16MP DX-format sensor (APS-C size), 1080p video capture @ 24fps, 26-point AF system, climbing sensitivity (but not as high as the FX sensor of the D3s, let’s not dream: Native ISO 100-6400).
• Nikon may renew, or may only give the last orientations for the evolution of its pro line after the Nikon D3s and D3x. But there may not be much more than a wooden prototype.

On the other side, no replacement for the D700 in 2010 (with an FX sensor). Both pro and amateur sales representatives where told that this impressively beautiful Full Frame photo camera will see its successor only after the professional shows of early 2011. Probably, for a real announcement before Summer 2011 and availability after Summer. We will have to be very patient and Nikon certainly did not have as many sales as needed to fully convince the marketing department that a (relatively) low resolution FX (Full Frame) sensor is the way to go. They see the competition (Canon and Sony, first) rushing for a pixel-race that may not be ideal for image quality but stays convincing for most applications.

The $1000 open question is still in front of the low-end of the market. On one side, I hear that the Nikon D4000 is ready to launch; On the other side, I hear that it does not even exist. But no source seems more reliable than another. It may simply come from the fact that rumours abound and are always less precise for entry-level photo cameras, or it may be that the new entry-level camera from Nikon will hold a completely different name and people get lost by this change. We will have to wait a little more, I guess.

Currently, Nikon’s development efforts are centered on the preparation of a a new hybrid compact camera (how should I name these photo cameras which look like a point-and-shoot, host interchangeable lenses and an APS-C sensor that would be acceptable in a mid-range SLR camera?). For Nikon, it will be the means to put a whole new range in orbit, bringing two new major features:

• Much improved video capture modes with options to simplify significantly the operation and certainly some technical details to reduce the issues linked to autofocus while shooting video.
• A deep integration with Internet and the communication networks. It is clear that these cameras (there will be a full range of them) will be very near to Flickr, YouTube and Facebook. WiFi integration will be part of the scope.

the first announcements have been done by Makoto Kimura in an interview with Bloomberg, and confirmed by others more recently. If the cameras are scheduled for the end of the year (1st quarter or 2011, at most), Nikon seems ready to lift the curtain on many of the features and details of new range in September 2010 at the Photokina.

Since 2009, we can consider that the race for more pixels is over. All camera manufacturers decided more or less to go easy on resolution: Over 12-15 MP, you can easily print an A4 or Letter-size print in top quality. Most photographers will never need more. So, why go over 20 MP?

Most manufacturers followed the lead of Olympus and Nikon trying to enlarge the pixels in order to ensure they collect more light and this leads to a higher level of sensitivity as measured by the ISO standard. This is good, because this means that our pictures are going to be better and better, not only uselessly finer and finer. Moreover, maximum ISO sensitivity becomes a relatively good proxy for image quality.

However, there is a slippery slope here. It has already been observed in some Point-and-Shoot compact photo cameras: A manufacturer may be tempted to push a maximum ISO level to ridiculously stratospheric altitudes. It’s not only because you P&S camera can do ISO 1600, that its pictures are still usable (noise cancellation algorithms may be so energetic that most of the details are blurred in the process).

Usually, in the D-SLR market we do not see this happening too often, but there is a risk. With Canon and Nikon leading the race with (pro) cameras over ISO 100,000, we already see figures that are amazingly high and images that are already quite bad (for a pro).

Don’t get me wrong! I’m quite happy to see that technology will soon be allowing us to shoot pictures in darkness without using a flash. But those two very serious camera manufacturers have obviously been racing to reach an ISO landmark. Some others, maybe less able, will reach it not only with barely usable photos, but with really unacceptable pictures. Then, it would become a fruitless race again, with figures creeping into the fact sheets and a real-life comparison will be ever more critical.

For me, the Canon EOS 1D Mk IV and Nikon D3s are useful because they produce absolutely great photos at ISO 32,800, not just because they can collect a barely informational document at ISO 102,400. Let’s be attentive with the present products from Canon and Nikon and the future cameras from all the photo camera manufacturers.

We should still be photographers and not just number-seeking blind consumers. I hope we are.

But, even if you are ready to switch from your current brand of photo camera, which one should you choose? There are a few comparisons that are starting to pop around the Internet and I want to list them to you:

• The Mansurovs: in Nikon D3s vs Canon EOS-1D Mark IV highlights the 9 key differences between them and says “this camera [the Canon EOS-1D Mark IV] beats the Nikon D3s in almost every feature category.”
• PhotographyReview.com says “the choice comes down to image quality vs. speed.”
• Digital Rev says “Canon EOS-1D Mark IV vs Nikon D3S – Rivalling in Speed and Sensitivity” but they simply compare feature lists and draw no conclusion.

So, which one is yours now?

Ready to celebrate the arrival of 2009 Beaujolais Nouveau, a new version of the RAW conversion utility from Adobe is here: Camera Raw 5.6. It supports a whole lot of recent cameras:

• Canon EOS 7D
• Canon PowerShot G11
• Canon PowerShot S90
• Leaf Aptus II 5
• Mamiya DM22, DM28, DM33, DM56, M18, M22, M31
• Nikon D3s
• Olympus E-P2
• Pentax K-x
• Panasonic FZ38
• Sigma DP1s
• Sony A500
• Sony A550
• Sony A850

It also solves an issue in demosaicing of some Raw files on PowerPC Mac.

Download Adobe Camera Raw 5.6.

But this is still to be confirmed.

Sources: Shots.fr, Nikon Rumors.

Update: The D3s is now confirmed for October 15th, by another source (via RP).