So, can we try and build a summary of what is known and what the Nikon-lovers must know and understand if they are waiting for their next dream photo camera?

The first thing to notice is clearly the way Digital SLR photo cameras ran one after the other in the Nikon range of cameras. I dare say that I borrowed a camera Timeline built by Wikipedia (See below). This historical approach based on the record of launch dates allows to better perceive how Nikon usually operates:

• Entry-level photo cameras replaced at high frequency
• A much quieter Pro-level range

It is immediately clear that the pro photo cameras are about to be replaced with new models, if only because of the age of the current cameras:

• 3 years for the D3x
• Nearly two years for the D3s
• 3 years for the D700
• 2 years for the D300s

From this poiint, rumors are flaring up quite naturally (just look at how many wrong rumors we collected about the Nikon D400).

But the rhythm seems to speed up with the various announcements seen recently on Facebook, NikonRumors, PCHome (China), Tech.Hexun.com (China too), and a few others.

We long considered as certain that Summer 2011 would see the simultaneous launch of two pro cameras at Nikon, but the Japanese tsunami totally changed the landscape for a company whose main pro camera manufacturing plant was in Sendai (nearly exactly at the center of devastation in March). Nikon quickly reacted and decided to move its manufacturing resources to Malaysia. The latest news tell that machines are now humming with the people you relocated (with the help of special supporting bonuses) and the “Made in Malaysia” production is nearly here (with the same quality as in Japan).

On the other hand, it seems that it transformed the Marketing calendar that Nikon had built in January 2011. All the rumors were concentrating on a Summer with a Nikon D4 and a Nikon D400 (successors to the D3 and D300s). But in the recent weeks, everybody seems to be sharing an expectation of Nikon D4 and Nikon D800 (successors to the D3 and D700). I could not seriously confirm this change but it seems that it could have been dictated by the need to optimize resources leading to something like:

1. Two Full Frame cameras in September 2011 (according to NR, it could even be August)
2. A D400 in January 2012

the only problem of this scenario: The Nikon D800 is supposed to use the Sony digital sensor being readied to power the Sony A99 which should not appear before the end of 2011 (or even the first quarter of 2012).

So, it is still possible that the rumors heard here and there are going to be corrected by facts and that in September 2011 we’ll see a Nikon D4 (with a specific sensor designed exclusively by Nikon with a “pro” label) and a Nikon D400 (with an APS-C sensor shared with the Sony A77 -or slightly modified- and an “expert” label).

Nikon D400

• 24 MP APS-C CMOS sensor from Sony
• ISO 100-51,200 (ext. ISO 102,400)
• New AF
• Continuous shooting: 9 fps
• Full HD video
• In-camera GPS?
• Two SD cards

Nikon D800 or D700s

• 18 MP FF/FX CMOS sensor from Nikon
• ISO 100-102,400 (ext. ???)
• Same AF as D700 or D3
• Continuous shooting: 9 fps
• Full HD video
• CF + SD cards

Nikon D4

• 18 MP FF/FX CMOS sensor from Nikon
• ISO 100-102,400 (ext. ???)
• New AF?
• Continuous shooting: 10-15 fps
• Full HD video
• CF + SD cards

According to the Spanish webzine QUESABESDE.COM, Nikon has clarified (at least internally) what to do with the upcoming replacement of the Nikon D700 (FX large sensor with a high sensitivity).

Because of the impact of the Japanese earthquake on the Sendai plant normally used to work on the pro SLR cameras of Nikon, the future Nikon D800 was in a rather difficult position. According to QSD, the announcement has been moved from the beginning of Summer (July? about the same time as the 3rd birthday of the D700) to October with a D800 camera availability still pushed around the end of 2011 (Marketing launch is easy, making the camera is a bit more difficult).

Obviously, the exact dates are not set yet because of the fluctuating nature of the news about the earthquake recovery. But this seems in line with what I hear about the industrial capacity of Nikon right now and in the coming months.

QSD also indicates that the Nikon D4 (successor to the Nikon D3s) will only be launched in 2012. But this is still very imprecise and needs to be confirmed.

As a matter of fact, an online Chinese eCommerce web site published a product page for the Nikon D800. A photo, some features somewhat far from what is expected from Nikon, but after all, why not?

First and foremost, the resolution would (fast) climb to 24 MP, or near to the current maximum for Full Frame digital sensors, indicating a possible use of the Full Frame photo sensor from Sony (already used on Sony Alpha 900 and Alpha 850, but with some video-capture ability added).

Next, we find a shutter with speeds from 30s to 1/8000s for continuous bursts of 7 frames/second, video recording in 720p and 1080p, ISO 200-6400 (ext. to ISO 100-25600) light sensitivity, exposure metering using a 1005-RGB-point sensor and system, Nikon Multi-CAM 3500FX AF 51-point AF system, a fixed LCD screen attached to the back of the camera with a 3″ (7,5 cm) LCD with 921.000 pixels.

Clearly, this would build a relatively easy to predict kind of camera (apart from the high resolution of the sensor which would indicate Nikon is leaving the lonely track of low resolution Full Frame to go and catch up with Canon and Sony where they already succeed).

But this is still surprising. If this is more than an unfounded rumour, it will allow a prediction of the direction Sony is taking in terms of FF sensors and the successor to the Sony Alpha 900 and Alpha 850 would keep their resolution at 24 MP while video capture would be added like on the Nikon D800.

Digital Rev, which is not used to propagating false rumours (or any rumors at all, by the way) up to now, just published a small article explaining why there will be no Nikon D700s (a minor improvement over the current Nikon D700 Full Frame DSLR camera): It would not be powerful enough to kick the very successful Canon EOS 5D Mk II (Sony probably has the same issue in order to provide a sibling to the Alpha 900/Alpha 850 offering; Pentax solved the issue by looking at a larger format in the 645D).

Instead, they would be preparing a new and better Nikon D800 with a much more powerful set of features:

• Full Frame FX CMOS 16 MP photo sensor
• Sensitivity: ISO 200-12800 (ext. to ISO 102400)
• Continuous shooting at 9 fps (or 11 fps in DX mode)
• Autofocus system: Based on the 3500FX 51-point Multi-CAM
• Full HD video
• 3″ (921,000 dots) VGA LCD

In any case, I would not expect this for the short term. Not before beginning of 2011.

First and foremost, let’s notice that after a deluge of news in 2008 and 2009, the yellow brand seemed a little slow (and farming money from its advance, I should say). It is probably a coincidence and the simultaneous occurrence of several jumps in the various product families, but it should also be considered as a warning of things to come in the digital SLR product lines.

The cameras that are most probably going to be replaced or renewed are (according to the data I could get):

• The Nikon D90 has grown past its normal life since the very noisy launch of 2008 and its 720p video capture needs to be upgraded to keep annoying the competition. So, probably, here comes the Nikon D7000 for early September: 16MP DX-format sensor (APS-C size), 1080p video capture @ 24fps, 26-point AF system, climbing sensitivity (but not as high as the FX sensor of the D3s, let’s not dream: Native ISO 100-6400).
• Nikon may renew, or may only give the last orientations for the evolution of its pro line after the Nikon D3s and D3x. But there may not be much more than a wooden prototype.

On the other side, no replacement for the D700 in 2010 (with an FX sensor). Both pro and amateur sales representatives where told that this impressively beautiful Full Frame photo camera will see its successor only after the professional shows of early 2011. Probably, for a real announcement before Summer 2011 and availability after Summer. We will have to be very patient and Nikon certainly did not have as many sales as needed to fully convince the marketing department that a (relatively) low resolution FX (Full Frame) sensor is the way to go. They see the competition (Canon and Sony, first) rushing for a pixel-race that may not be ideal for image quality but stays convincing for most applications.

The $1000 open question is still in front of the low-end of the market. On one side, I hear that the Nikon D4000 is ready to launch; On the other side, I hear that it does not even exist. But no source seems more reliable than another. It may simply come from the fact that rumours abound and are always less precise for entry-level photo cameras, or it may be that the new entry-level camera from Nikon will hold a completely different name and people get lost by this change. We will have to wait a little more, I guess.

Currently, Nikon’s development efforts are centered on the preparation of a a new hybrid compact camera (how should I name these photo cameras which look like a point-and-shoot, host interchangeable lenses and an APS-C sensor that would be acceptable in a mid-range SLR camera?). For Nikon, it will be the means to put a whole new range in orbit, bringing two new major features:

• Much improved video capture modes with options to simplify significantly the operation and certainly some technical details to reduce the issues linked to autofocus while shooting video.
• A deep integration with Internet and the communication networks. It is clear that these cameras (there will be a full range of them) will be very near to Flickr, YouTube and Facebook. WiFi integration will be part of the scope.

the first announcements have been done by Makoto Kimura in an interview with Bloomberg, and confirmed by others more recently. If the cameras are scheduled for the end of the year (1st quarter or 2011, at most), Nikon seems ready to lift the curtain on many of the features and details of new range in September 2010 at the Photokina.

• Nikon has been telling the world that they intended to have a great year 2010. It seems that they will bring a new DSLR (it could be the Nikon D700x, Nikon D700s, or Nikon D800 according to the rumor mill). It would be confirmed according to the banner visible on LetsGoDigital. But this is apparently a fake built from press material from the older Nikon D3 (via NR).
• Yesterday’s press conference did not bring a single SLR though (Coolpix S8000, Coolpix S6000, Coolpix S4000, Coolpix S3000, Coolpix P100, Coolpix L110, Coolpix L22, Coolpix L21, nothing less!)
• Plenty of people expect to see the Canon EOS 60D arriving now, but it’s still uncertain. NL/DPR predicts a set of features: CMOS 18MPs, 6.3fps, HD 24 and 36fps, Digic IV.
• According to CR, Canon is preparing a new Rebel/EOS camera whose name should be Rebel T2i (the European name could be 550D or EOS 600D), with video, fixed LCD of improved resolution.
• At last, Canon would present the very pro Canon EOS 1Ds Mk IV
• Samsung should extend its new NX line, possibly with some lenses (waiting a little more for a new NX camera body).
• Olympus and Fuji should bring only P&S cameras.
• The Sony rumour line is totally silent, which could be indicator that either they are efficient at keeping a lid on the new Alpha 750 or there is nothing in preparation.

So, let’s wait a little more.

What will be this super-Nikon camera?

Origin: NR.

Seeing that this kind of terminology is now used by Nikon these days, it seems credible, even if nothing is said about a confirmation by Nikon.

• Canon: one announcement would be a definite possibility to replace the Canon 1D Mk III with a Canon 1D Mk IV and maybe also a Canon EOS 7D whose top cover and a detail are visible below (August 25?)
• Nikon: D700x (or D800) to offer a 24 MP full frame sensor.
• Sony: Alpha 500, Alpha 550, Alpha 850 (probably on August 28)
• Pentax: an entry-level SLR

We only have to wait (impatiently) for a few days (maybe a few hours) in order to know all about .

August 4, 2009

• Nikon D3000
• Nikon D300s with Full-HD movie 24 fps, improved AF, self timer + mirror-up, cf + sd-slot
• AF-S DX 17-65/3.2-4 G VR with 72(!) mm filter

October 15, 2009:

• Nikon D700x with 24.5 MP, Full-HD movie 24 fps, improved AF and self timer + mirror-up
• AF-S Nikkor 24-135mm f/3.5-5.6G ED VR (The FX-dream-walk-around-lens?)
• AF-S Nikkor 70-200mm f/2.8G ED VR II (What everybody waited for! 82 mm filter, 1530 g)
• AF-S Nikkor 35mm f/1.4G
• AF-S Nikkor 85mm f/1.4G (No VR?)

Q1/2010:

• AF-S Nikkor 14-28mm f/3.5-4.5G ED
• AF-S Nikkor 120-450mm f/4.5-5.6G ED VR II (Replacement for 80-400? 82 mm, 1480 g)

Q2/2010:

• Nikon D4 with 15.7 MP, improved 1 EV, Full HD-movie 30fps
• Nikon D400 with 13.8 MP, improved 1 EV, Full HD-movie 24fps

Q3/2010:

• AF-S Nikkor 300mm f/4G VR (On the waiting list for many!)
• AF-S Nikkor 400mm f/5.6G VR (Have been missing a long time!)
• AF-S Nikkor 70-240mm f/3.5-4.5G VR (The missing medium size telezoom!)
• AF-S Nikkor 105mm f/2G DC (A small surprise. No VR?)
• AF-S Nikkor 24-85mm f/4G VR
• AF-S DX Nikkor 60-95mm f/2G VR (The DX dream-telezoom!)
• AF-S DX Nikkor 17-60mm f/2.8G VR (Replacing 17-55 with addition of VR)
• Nikon Coolpix P1DX with DX 12.3 MP stabilized sensor, 28-85/3.5-5.6 zoom (comparable to FX, actually 18-56), 2.9 inch 920k-display, movable upwards for macro.

Q4/2010:

• Nikon D4X with 30.2 MP with 1 EV improved sensitivity

So, is it for real? Is it a leak? Or is it merely a tediously built list of relatively good expectations/wishes? Hard to say. I would just remind you that this is clearly classified as a rumor.

As always, I recommend not to make your purchase decisions based upon rumors, but based upon the existing cameras and lenses. The best equipment is always the one you use (compared to the one you dream about). Your dream does not produce photos, but your camera will.

Thanks to Mash.

Keep your eyes peeled for the last days of February.

Now, this has a clear impact on the decisions in photography-related companies. Who would want to spend millions of dollars on advertisement, press information, etc. if the potential customers are not even listening because their attention is focused on managing their day-to-day life or a foreclosure? Additionally, many camera manufacturers see their prices forced up (at the worst possible time) by unfavorable evolution of exchange rates (everybody is speaking about the world-wide price hike-ups of Nikon, Sigma and a few others). So, many marketing departments of photo companies are reviewing their launch calendar.

It seems that one of the first companies to have made a decision here is Canon. The word is out that the Canon EOS 500D is currently pressured for a delay which would make its launch more in line with a less depressed market. It may be pushed from this Winter to Spring or early Summer 2009 (Northlight Images even say Autumn). Of course, this goes with the possibility for the designers to add new features if it is still possible to use this delay. This could be a good financial and technical strategy.

However, there is a lot of pressure mounting inside Canon in order to close the gap created by Nikon with the launch of the Nikon D90, Nikon D700, Nikon D3x. The Canon 500D with video features would be a good answer.

It is also said that the Pentax K30D may be delayed. Or is it that Pentax is unsure about what to include in the package right now?

Sony has a lot of things to send to the market in 2009. Scheduling the launches in steps could be natural if they need to spread the costs, but I doubt they will adopt such a strategy. Despite the financial issues they recently disclosed, they seem quite able to pursue their usual strategy of “maximum impact” which supports well the simultaneous disclosing of a wealth of products. Nevertheless, it could lead to a step-by-step availability.

Nothing seems to be said of Nikon delays. Is it because they are perceived as having such an impetus that they can’t stop pushing new good products to the market?

Whatever happens, recession is a factor that the marketing department of any major camera company must take into account. There is little doubt that 2009 (and possibly 2010) will be a bad year for all consumer-oriented industries. Since no part of the world will be doing really better than the others, this brings the need to be cautious. Let’s hope that camera brands will not stop showing us good (better?) cameras.

Last minute note: Nikon Watch just announced that both Nikon and Canon were posting decreasing profits.