So, can we try and build a summary of what is known and what the Nikon-lovers must know and understand if they are waiting for their next dream photo camera?

The first thing to notice is clearly the way Digital SLR photo cameras ran one after the other in the Nikon range of cameras. I dare say that I borrowed a camera Timeline built by Wikipedia (See below). This historical approach based on the record of launch dates allows to better perceive how Nikon usually operates:

• Entry-level photo cameras replaced at high frequency
• A much quieter Pro-level range

It is immediately clear that the pro photo cameras are about to be replaced with new models, if only because of the age of the current cameras:

• 3 years for the D3x
• Nearly two years for the D3s
• 3 years for the D700
• 2 years for the D300s

From this poiint, rumors are flaring up quite naturally (just look at how many wrong rumors we collected about the Nikon D400).

But the rhythm seems to speed up with the various announcements seen recently on Facebook, NikonRumors, PCHome (China), Tech.Hexun.com (China too), and a few others.

We long considered as certain that Summer 2011 would see the simultaneous launch of two pro cameras at Nikon, but the Japanese tsunami totally changed the landscape for a company whose main pro camera manufacturing plant was in Sendai (nearly exactly at the center of devastation in March). Nikon quickly reacted and decided to move its manufacturing resources to Malaysia. The latest news tell that machines are now humming with the people you relocated (with the help of special supporting bonuses) and the “Made in Malaysia” production is nearly here (with the same quality as in Japan).

On the other hand, it seems that it transformed the Marketing calendar that Nikon had built in January 2011. All the rumors were concentrating on a Summer with a Nikon D4 and a Nikon D400 (successors to the D3 and D300s). But in the recent weeks, everybody seems to be sharing an expectation of Nikon D4 and Nikon D800 (successors to the D3 and D700). I could not seriously confirm this change but it seems that it could have been dictated by the need to optimize resources leading to something like:

1. Two Full Frame cameras in September 2011 (according to NR, it could even be August)
2. A D400 in January 2012

the only problem of this scenario: The Nikon D800 is supposed to use the Sony digital sensor being readied to power the Sony A99 which should not appear before the end of 2011 (or even the first quarter of 2012).

So, it is still possible that the rumors heard here and there are going to be corrected by facts and that in September 2011 we’ll see a Nikon D4 (with a specific sensor designed exclusively by Nikon with a “pro” label) and a Nikon D400 (with an APS-C sensor shared with the Sony A77 -or slightly modified- and an “expert” label).

Nikon D400

• 24 MP APS-C CMOS sensor from Sony
• ISO 100-51,200 (ext. ISO 102,400)
• New AF
• Continuous shooting: 9 fps
• Full HD video
• In-camera GPS?
• Two SD cards

Nikon D800 or D700s

• 18 MP FF/FX CMOS sensor from Nikon
• ISO 100-102,400 (ext. ???)
• Same AF as D700 or D3
• Continuous shooting: 9 fps
• Full HD video
• CF + SD cards

Nikon D4

• 18 MP FF/FX CMOS sensor from Nikon
• ISO 100-102,400 (ext. ???)
• New AF?
• Continuous shooting: 10-15 fps
• Full HD video
• CF + SD cards

What will be this super-Nikon camera?

Origin: NR.

Update: This is unconfirmed.

Now, people are left wondering what Nikon will be preparing next. The obvious move is to complete the Nikon D300 with some new camera that would allow to grab some more market after the still green D300. This should be the… Nikon D400 (no surprise, eh!)

But the D3x (with its out-of-Earth price) and the D700 with its emphasis toward high ISOs (at the expense of high pixel counts) leave a clearly open path for a new camera that would be a direct contender against the Canon EOS 5D MkII and the Sony Alpha 900. Give Nikon a D300 body to cram a 20+ mega-pixel sensor and you should get a… Nikon D800/D900.

I would expect these two cameras to be arriving around mid-2009, possibly in Fall to leave some time to launch an entry-level camera before Summer.

Let’s make a summary of the current status of the information that is available (for real or as rumours) about the next SLR camera from Nikon.

Plenty of people actually expect it to be the replacement of the Nikon D3 camera. I have to admit that there is a lot of rumours and convergent thinking that leads to the launch of such a pro SLR camera in the beginning of 2009 (probably just before the PMA fair).

Actually, nobody (out of Nikon; and even there…) really knows the future name of this camera. Most experts (including Thom Hogan) think that it should be Nikon D3x, some people say that it will definitely be named differently, and I even see a convergence of Nikon D900. But this last one seems totally weird since it would lead Nikon to breaking the marketing message dropping the pro-SLR camera family into the prosumer D200/D300/D700 family.

Nikon rumours repeatedly pushed rumours telling us that this would be happening in the beginning of next year, in the end of 2008, in 2009, or on.. November 20th, then December 6-7th, or December 1st. Let’s say that they don’t know anything at all.

But there is definitely something coming before the end of 2008. I would suggest that some people should start looking at the low end of the market.

Nikon is preparing a replacement for the Nikon D60 (currently covered by some cash-back offers). And there are only two possibilities:

• Either it will be launched before Christmas 2008
• Or it will be ready only in Spring 2009

But I don’t think that the Nikon D3x (or Nikon D900 ;-)) will not be arriving in December.

• The Nikon D3 is getting more difficult to find (this would be a signal that its replacement is coming)
• Announcement is scheduled for November 20th (but nobody seems to have any details and is just repeating the same tired old news).
• People speak about a Nikon D3x or a Nikon D400 (the latest fad), but nobody really knows its name, though. Even, the guy who sent poor photos to Nikon Rumours earlier this month.
• A German Nikon web site has been seen using a D3_2 name for a folder to store firmwares (could mean anything).
• But most interestingly, the Sony sensor guys revealed that they no longer intend to sell their 24MP sensor to outsiders. This is a major change compared to the previous deals between Nikon and Sony that led successfull cameras like the Nikon D200. That probably removes most of the fuel from the previous rumours of 24MP sensor size. Nikon would be ready to use any size as far as it is larger than the one from the Nikon D700.

Did I say BIG?

I would not be much surprised if I saw a really large pixel count… Stay tuned.